The Foundation of the Savings banks (Funcas) has supported in-3,7 % the fall of the GDP this year and in-0,6 % the descent waited in 2010, according to the last estimations of November, which worsen the forecasts of the Government for both years in a tenth and in three tenths, respectively.
This result for this year owes to a fall of 6,5 % of the national demand, which will not be able to be compensated by the growth of 2,9 % of the external demand.
This way, for 2010, the forecast of growth of the national demand has deteriorated from a valuation of-1,5 % up to-1,7 %, although this slightly more negative evolution waited for the components of demand has been resisted by an improvement of the expectations for the exports, which will grow 2,1 %, opposite to the previous forecast of 0,8 %. This way, the external demand will contribute 1,2 points to the growth of the Gross National Product.
The quarterly profile waited by the panel of forecasts corresponds to a few valuations that are going to be supported without changes in-0,3 % in the fourth trimester of 2009 and first of 2010, what it implies that up to the second trimester of next year an improvement will not take place, when the GDP c omenzará already to register positive growth valuations in interquarterly terms.
These consensus forecasts for the industrial activity have improved, up to a change of-17,4 % in 2009, but the improvement has been more significant in the forecast corresponding to 2010, which has been located in-2,7 %, 2,4 points more than in the September panel.
As for the inflation / deflation, the estimations of the panel of Funcas have been modified perceptibly to the fall, up to-0,3 % of average this year and a 1,3 % the next one, two and three tenths less than the previous survey, respectively.
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